Oscar Predictions

The Academy may have actually got it right this year - close enough anyway, at least for me. Usually the Academy's choices include some great pics, ignore some wonderful movies, and celebrate some pretty mediocre films in the main categories. It's a mixed bag where you live with the overrated to find some of your gems. This year, I'm quite pleased to say, the Academy's taste matches much closer to mine than in any recent year.

Let's take best picture for example. I've seen four of the five films. All four are in my top ten films of the year. Not only that, but my top three films are all here. And for the fifth, I just didn't get a chance to see it yet. I'm anxious to see Munich, it just hasn't happened yet (I crammed to get Brokeback and Capote in before the Oscars thanks to some babysitting by my mom). So four films that definitely belong here and the fifth likely does too; pretty impressive when you look at just about any other year and find at least one film nowhere near my top ten list. On top of that, two additional films from my ten best are up for Animated Feature and one more from my list is up for Documentary Feature. That's seven of my ten best up for a significant award. That leaves three films in my ten best. One is up for screenplay and acting. One is up for sound mixing and makeup. That leaves only Broken Flowers without an Academy Award nomination. I'll take that ratio any year.

So, on with the predictions. With the exception of the supporting actor/actress categories, the major categories seem predetermined. The surprise would be if there was an upset.

Best Picture:
What will win: Brokeback Mountain. It's a great movie: sweeping, powerful, tender, heartbreaking.
Who I'd vote for: Brokeback, though Capote is so close I could change my mind at any minute.

Best Director:
Will: Ang Lee for Brokeback.
My vote: Lee. He's shown tremendous range throughout his career and made his best film. A confident, terrific work.

Best Actor:
Will: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote. He takes a real character that is certainly a challenge to mimic, but goes far deeper than that giving a deep, complete performance. I think if an upset would come about, it would be Terrence Howard pulling it off, but I'm not banking on that happening.
My vote: Hoffman, I've been a huge fan for years. Though Terrence Howard or Heath Ledger would get loud cheers from me as well. A great category this year.

Best Actress:
Will: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.
My vote: I haven't seen a single performance yet.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will: George Clooney for Syriana. This should be a close four way race with only William Hurt (A History of Violence) seemingly out of the hunt. I think anyone else could pull this off, but the most likely is Clooney and I think that is due to him also being nominated in the directing and screenwriting categories. The Academy won't reward him there, but they can give him a combined prize here.
My vote: Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback, though I'd love for Paul Giamatti to be an Oscar winner.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will: Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener. It should also be a close race.
My vote: Michelle Williams for Brokeback. This category is not as strong as the other acting categories. The performances I've seen (all but Frances McDormand, and she's always good) are very good but there isn't that one that just shouts out to me as Oscar winner. Williams is very good though.

Documentary Feature:
Will: March of the Penguins. And its good, with some terrific footage.
My vote: Murderball. But this is the best doc of the year.

Animated Feature:
Will: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. And I will cheer loudly.
My vote: Corpse Bride. But I would vote for the brilliant Tim Burton film. But what a category. I can attest to two tremendous films, and the third is from the master of hand-drawn animation, Hayao Miyazaki - I just haven't seen it yet (I'd cheer for Howl's Moving Castle too, you just can't go wrong here).

Original Screenplay:
Will: Crash. It is the type of original work that often comes up big in screenplay but is often left out of the big category (though not this year).
My vote: Crash.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will: Brokeback Mountain.
My vote: Capote. Again a very close call and this time I'll side with Capote.

The only other category I'll mention is Original Song where I'm routing for "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp." It does exactly what a song should do, its catchy, exciting, and perfectly serves the story as a central part of the film.

We'll know the rest within 24 hours.